North Korea’s intentions are not yet fully clear. News about the country’s missile tests and nuclear tests since the beginning of this year invariably end up in discussions, in varying degrees, on a plausible threat of war. This fear can be attributed to the fact that little is known to the outside world about what is happening inside North Korea.
The rest of the world is generally clueless about the manner in which North Korea takes diplomatic decisions and implement these. Add to this, certain notions prevalent about this country. These factors contribute to the inference that North Korea is preparing for a war. Moreover, this belief is beefed up by the fact that the country conducts weapon tests at regular intervals, followed by rhetorical self-praise.
Worldwide strike-range
The latest incident that made North Korea attract global attention was the test of an inter-continental ballistic missile conducted on July 4 and 28. If aimed accurately, the second test is capable of bringing the whole western US within its strike-range. Considering the distance that the missile had covered in the second test, not only the US, but also many of the populated areas across the world could be targeted. Hence, the threat is applicable not only to the US but also to the whole world. The move by Pakistan, which later announced that it had collaborated with North Korea in developing missile technology, is also to be taken into account.
Tight sanctions
The US reacts sharply to North Korea’s nuclear projects. The core of the resolution passed by the UN Security Council on August 5, 2017, were the sanctions against North Korea.
The UN sanctions adversely affected most of the goods exported by North Korea, resulting in up to a 33 per cent fall in its revenue from exports. Workers from North Korea were denied jobs, aiming to curb foreign exchange. The country’s financial deals with foreign countries were banned at various levels. The UN Security Council’s resolution required that all member-countries must implement the resolution strictly. The US described this as the strongest sanctions imposed against any country in modern times.
Looking for provocation
North Korea, which initially threatened to target the US military station on Guam island, later softened its stand by saying that it will not consider such a step as long as the there is no provocation from the US. However, this change of stance comes in the context that any step by the US could be considered by North Korea as provocative.
North Korea can interpret even the US-South Korea joint military exercise as provocation. In this sense, it cannot be said that the tension has fully eased.
Many possibilities
The possibility of war is distant as long as North Korea does not resort to harmful measures. North Korea’s urgent intent is to get nuclear weapons of the US out of South Korea. US President Donald Trump had earlier hinted at such a move, but he will not be able to overcome strong opposition from the Senate. Both the US and China fear that Japan will become a military power in the region if South Korea is made nuclear-free.
South Korea’s President Moon Je In has asserted that the situation would not be allowed to worsen into a war. Parleys are being preferred to military action.
(The writer was India’s envoy in many nations)
