Frank Islam is a Hillblazer or one who has helped raise huge funds for Hillary Clinton’s campaign. The India-born entrepreneur’s house on the banks of the Potomac is said to be grander than the White House, for the residence of which a bitter battle is at its last leg.
Islam, who is a civic leader, philanthropist and writer all rolled into one, speaks to THE WEEK on the Presidential race. Excerpts:
How would you rate the chances of the two candidates?
I believe Clinton has an 80-90 per cent chance of winning the election. Since the time the tapes in which Trump made vulgar and sexually aggressive comments about women were released, a number of prominent Republicans such as Arizona Senator and the 2008 Republican presidential candidate John McCain have withdrawn their support for Trump. Even Mike Pence, Trump’s vice-presidential running mate, was highly critical of Trump’s comments and behavior.
Do you think Bernie Sanders' followers have been convinced enough to support Hillary?
From what I’ve heard and read, the large majority—85 per cent or so—of Sanders followers are already in Hillary’s camp. I expect that another 5 to 10 per cent will move over to her before the election. Those who don’t support Hillary will most likely vote for one of the third party candidates. Very few will vote for Trump.
On the three Bs—Bernie, Barack and Bill—how do you rate them as assets for her?
All the three are very valuable assets. It’s impossible to rate or rank them. They are all playing roles as surrogates in key states. Senator Sanders is appealing to his “populist” base. President Obama (and I would add his wife Michele) are appealing to the majority of all voters who are satisfied with his performance as president and to the people of colour who voted for him in 2008 and again in 2012. Former president Clinton is appealing to the traditional Democrats and to those independents who remember the good economic times of his administration.
What is your observation on how swing states are behaving?
Secretary Clinton is doing well in all of the swing states. The two swing states where Trump appears to have the best chance is Ohio because the electorate there is older and whiter than in the other swing sates; Florida and Iowa also look close at this point. But I think Secretary Clinton will prevail in Florida. Clinton has a convincing lead in Virginia, Pennsylvania and Colorado. The bad news for Trump is that Hillary could lose both Florida and Ohio and still win the Electoral College vote. The same is not true for Trump. If he loses Florida or Ohio, it will be almost impossible for him to win the presidency as he has to sweep almost all of the swing states.
What will decide the election this time? Those who vote, those who don't, those who vote for the candidate because they support the candidate or those who vote for one candidate to ensure the other doesn't win.
In two words 'turnout' and 'ground game'. The voters that matter the most to Secretary Clinton are the Democratic base, voters of color, female voters, more highly educated voters and the true independents or persuadable who are about 5-10 per cent of the electorate.
That is the winning coalition and at this point in time it appears that Clinton is positioned to run the table with these groups and has the campaign staff and volunteers to bring them to the polling place. By contrast, the Trump campaign has done little to expand beyond his base, beyond those who supported Trump in the primaries and has actually lost traditional Republican support as his candidacy has progressed. Combine this with the fact that the Trump campaign itself has few staff in any state and it’s hard to see Trump winning.
