As Germany steps into yet another Christmas season, the political environment in Berlin looks noticeably downcast. Nearly two months after the federal elections in which no party won an outright majority, Chancellor Angela Merkel, who returned as head of the single largest party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU), has not been able to cobble together a governing coalition. Over the past few weeks, Merkel has been in talks with leaders of the Christian Social Union (CSU), the CDU's sister party in Bavaria, the Free Democrats and the Greens. It was called the Jamaican coalition as the colours of the four parties are also the colours of the national flag of Jamaica. Merkel had to explore the Jamaican option as the second largest party in Germany, the Social Democrats, which was the junior coalition partner in the outgoing government chose not to continue with it.
It put Merkel on a sticky wicket, more so because of the impressive performance of the far right Alternative for Deutschland (AfD), which emerged as the third largest party in the September elections with 94 seats. The AfD's remarkable performance, by far the best by a far right party in Germany’s post-war electoral history, was attributed largely to Merkel's immigration policies. The chancellor, in 2015, opened up Germany's doors to the refugees fleeing the conflict zones of the Middle East. In less than two years, more than 1.5 million refugees entered Germany. While Merkel received accolades for her liberal outlook, it cost her votes in the elections as German's clearly indicated disapproval to the open-door policy. The integration of the refugees has been a major problem for Germany and neighbouring Austria, which shifted decidedly to the right in the parliamentary elections in October.
Merkel's fabled negotiation skills failed to break the deadlock and on November 20, she declared that the coalition talks broke down. The pro-business Free Democrats pulled out after more than four weeks of negotiations. FDP leader Christian Lindner cited irreconcilable differences with Merkel and the Greens as the reason behind the failure of talks. On two issues in particular, migration and climate change, Lindner felt it was impossible for him to find a common ground. The proposal to allow refugees to bring their families to Germany proved to be the last straw. “The four discussion partners have no common vision for modernisation of the country or common basis of trust. It is better not to govern than to govern badly,” said Lindner. After Lindner's departure, the conservatives and the Greens severely criticised his approach to the negotiations and put all blame on him for the collapse of the talks.
Merkel has already hinted that she is uncomfortable in heading a minority government. “A minority government is not part of my plans. I am very sceptical and I believe that new elections would be the better path,” she said, after a meeting with President Frank-Walter Steinmeier. The president asked all parties to work towards a solution and form a government as the present crisis was unprecedented in the history of Germany.
Postwar Germany puts a premium of political stability and as a result it is not easy to dissolve the Bundestag and call for fresh elections. Before calling fresh elections, the president will have to name Merkel as chancellor and call for a vote in the Bundestag as she heads the single largest party. If she wins a simple majority among Bundestag members present, she will be confirmed as chancellor. If she fails to win a majority, the MPs would vote again within two weeks. If she fails again, there will be a third vote and in that the person who wins the maximum votes will be appointed chancellor even if that person fails to win a simple majority. However, in that case, the chancellor can also opt to dissolve the Bundestag.
Fresh elections, however, seem to be the likeliest option. The possibility of reviving the CDU-Social Democrat alliance looked remote after the Social Democrats reiterated their opposition to join hands with Merkel. SPD deputy leader Thorsten Schafer-Gumbel said his party was “not the spare wheel on Merkel's careening car”. The SPD is also worried that if it joined the government, it would make the third-placed AfD, the largest opposition party, giving it privileges like the right to respond first to the chancellor, which will dramatically enhance its profile. The SPD, however, seems to be making a u-turn about forming a government after meeting with the president on November 23. The party has indicated that it would open talks with Merkel on forming a government. However, it is not yet clear whether it would agree for coalition or stay out and extend support to a minority government.
With both possible options—minority government and fresh elections after the failure to form a coalition—unusual and unprecedented in German political history, the nation now enters unchartered political territory, making predictions almost impossible. Merkel is unlikely to go down without a fight and she has made it quite clear that she was not planning to resign or give up the leadership of the CDU. “I promised during the election campaign that I would serve for four years,” she said, when asked about her possibility of continuing. Moreover, Merkel has not encouraged the development of a second-rung leadership in the party, which could take over its reins. She has, in fact, systematically put down all challenges to her leadership. As a result, despite leading the CDU to the party's worst electoral showing since 1949, there has not been any effective challenger to Merkel from within the party. Yet, there have been murmurs of discontent, especially against her immigration policies, which could become louder as days pass by and the political crisis remain unabated.
Merkel's departure could however deal a body blow to European politics already reeling under a series of crises including Brexit, Catalonian secession, growing tensions with Turkey, increasing interference from Russia, the unravelling Paris climate accord, crumbling European defence, crisis in Ukraine, increasing authoritarian tendencies in countries like Hungary and Poland and the presidency of Donald Trump. On November 17, she was absent from an EU summit held in Gothenburg, Sweden, spreading tension among the EU leadership. Germany remains the backbone of the European project and any instability in Berlin will have serious repercussions for the entire continent. President Macron of France, who has been hoping to put the EU project back on track with the support of Merkel, now looks worried. He said the ongoing crisis in Germany was not in the interest of France. Without a strong Germany, especially under Merkel, it will be difficult for Macron to carry forward his pet initiatives including a common defence force and a common finance minister for Europe. If the German impasse continues, all such grand plans will be delayed.
All is, however, not lost. The situation in Germany looks like a crisis only because it is happening in Germany. In most countries across the globe, such a situation will be perfectly normal, and be considered part of healthy democratic traditions. Moreover, the German economy is in perfect shape. On matters of national interest, especially regarding the European project, there is a great deal of consensus among major political groups. The difficulty she faces in forming a coalition is largely a personal setback to Merkel and it could be the beginning of the end of the beloved mutti (mother) of Germany.
