UTTAR PRADESH

SPlit: Akhilesh-Rahul bonhomie on the cards?

India Regional Politics (File) (From left to right) UP Chief Minister Akhilesh Yadav, SP supremo Mulayam Singh Yadav and SP state chief Shivpal Yadav

The turmoil within the Samajwadi Party has dramatically changed the political scenario in the Uttar Pradesh, ahead of upcoming state elections.  

This development directly impacts the way BJP and BSP would go into the elections. The biggest worry for the BJP is that direct beneficiary of this split could be the BSP — if Muslims decide to side with Mayawati, given her strong messages of cobbling up a Dalit-Muslim alliance.  

As Mulayam Yadav had ruled out an alliance with Congress, the split changes the situation. Akhilesh Yadav, with a large chunk of sitting MLAs, would be open to entering into an alliance with the Congress. Akhilesh had already praised Rahul Gandhi as a "good person". The calculated remark made in September may translate into Rahul Gandhi and Akhilesh Yadav joining hands.

Another addition to this alliance could Ajit Singh’s RLD and Nitish Kumar’s JDU, who have been observing the changing political situation with caution.  A 'grand alliance', if it happens draws into its fold a rainbow of castes that are required to win in the state.

Political observers feel that the split gives ‘perception advantage’ to Akhilesh more than Mulayam. As Akhilesh Yadav was expelled by his father and party chief Mulayam Yadav, the chief minister has distanced himself from old guard of party including Shivpal Yadav who were viewed suspiciously by other castes, given their traditional style of caste politics.

Akhilesh stands to gain the confidence of the younger lot of the Yadav caste, who may view him as a future leader who can lead the socialists and Yadavs — better than aging Mulayam. Akhilesh still carries a positive image and may like to gain the sympathy vote during the state elections, establishing himself as a strong leader in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, political sources pointed out.

The old war horse Mulayam had emerged as leader after a long struggle— the public, especially Yadavs and Muslims, identify with him. The confusion within these communities, whom Mulayam had strongly represented, would take time to subside.

If Akhilesh aligns with the Congress, RLD and JDU, it could send a message to these communities that he can form the government. Otherwise, the Muslims, along with Dalits, may side with BSP.

BJP’s politics lies in giving a larger nationalistic message so that it can paper over the caste loyalties.  BJP’s hopes lie in the fact that confusion, caused by entry of another contestant into the UP elections, would divide the Yadavs and Muslims. Yadavs, who are spread in almost all the constituencies, may end up supporting the BJP. The latter would now give more representation to Yadav candidates so that the community votes for it. For the saffron party, its biggest mascot is Narendra Modi.

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