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Niranjan Takle
Niranjan Takle

Switching sides

Rane's exit and the changing political equations in Maharashtra

narayan-rane-exit Narayan Rane | via Facebook

Former Maharashtra chief minister Narayan Rane, along with his son, former MP Nilesh Rane, resigned from the Congress on Thursday. “Congress promised but didn't make me chief minister in 12 years. Its shop in the state will get shut now,” Rane had said.

He also criticised former chief minister and state president of the Congress Ashok Chavan. “Ashok Chavan is bent on finishing the party by his vindictive politics and groupism. He doesn't deserve to be state president.”

The talks of Rane possibly joining the BJP has been doing rounds for over six months. He was upset and angry after Chavan dissolved Sindhudurg district Congress committee and appointed a new DCC president. Rane had said, “I had won municipal, zilla parishad and panchayat samiti elections for the Congress party in Sindhudurg. All other Congress leaders lost these elections in their respective districts, but Ashok Chavan dissolved the DCC without even consulting with me.”

Rane also resigned from his membership of the state legislative council. “I will go on a tour across the state to interact with my supporters and well-wishers before taking the decision to join any political party,” said.

He had met BJP president Amit Shah at the latter's residence in Ahmedabad along with Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis in April. The photographs of Rane and his son with Fadnavis in an SUV had gone viral. If the BJP inducts Rane in the state cabinet, he will have to get elected, either as a member of the legislative assembly or council within six months. 21 legislative council seats will get vacated in July, 2018 when the existing members retire after completing their tenure.

“Considering the quota required to get elected to the council, the Congress is likely to win three of these 21 (seats) to become the largest opposition party in the council. Rane could have become the leader of opposition in the council which has a cabinet rank,” said an official from the legislative secretariat.

The BJP has only one MLA from the three districts of Konkan region and Sindhudurg district is supposed to be Rane's bastion. However, he had lost the assembly election from Sindhudurg in 2014 after the defeat of his son Nilesh Rane in the parliament election. Shiv Sena had made a convincing comeback in the district, but Rane managed to win majority in the zilla parishad and municipal elections. Ratnagiri district has been a strong bastion of Shiv Sena while Raigarh district is mainly dominated by the NCP. The BJP is eyeing to gain foothold in Konkan by using Rane's clout while sidelining Shiv Sena.

Shiv Sena is well aware of the BJP's intentions. Ramdas Kadam, Shiv Sena minister from Konkan, said, “We know that the BJP wants to bully us, but they don't know the determination of Shiv Sainiks. We will teach them a lesson that they will never forget.”

Kadam further said party chief Uddhav Thackeray is talking to all the MLAs and district presidents to understand the situation and the party can even announce withdrawing its support to the government in its annual Dussehra rally.

The BJP has 123 MLAs in the assembly of 288 and falls short by 22 members to prove its majority. Rane said, “27 Shiv Sena MLAs are in touch with me and the BJP and are ready to switch sides if Shiv Sena withdraws its support. Some Congress leaders are also in touch with me. I will empty the opposition benches in the assembly.” This, however, will most likely turn out to be a rhetoric to scare Sena.

Uddhav Thackeray too understands the compulsions of being a BJP partner and the much larger implications of withdrawing support. BJP MP Kirit Somaiyya had disclosed in a press conference during the BMC elections that Thackeray's companies too have 'investments' from the same shell companies that are being investigated by ED for money laundering in Chhagan Bhujbal's case.

“The risk of BJP deploying ED after Uddhav Thackeray looms large and that fear compels him to continue his support to the government. Shiv Sena will keep posturing as if it opposes many decisions of the government and will pretend to fight for the farmers' causes, but the support will continue,” said Nawab Malik, NCP spokesperson.

Chavan gave a very measured reaction. “We have never done any injustice to Narayan Rane and his sons. We have nothing more to say and we wish him good luck for his future.” He added that no other Congress leader or MLA, apart from Nitesh Rane and one more MLA, will leave from the party.

The BJP, in any eventuality, is not likely to fall short of proving its majority. The Congress and the NCP are expected to hold its horses together while Shiv Sena will find itself, once again, in dilemma as to whether to quit power or to surrender to the pressure tactics of the BJP.

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