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Sachidananda Murthy
Sachidananda Murthy

CONSTITUTIONAL CRISIS

Comment: Turmoil in TN assembly to test Governor Rao's mettle

PTI7_11_2017_000088B Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis with Governor Vidyasagar Rao | File

If a political earthquake is triggered from the Shivaji Park in Mumbai on Vijayadashami Day, Vidyasagar Rao will have a unique distinction. He would be a governor dealing with constitutional crises in two states at the same time. The governor of Maharashtra with additional charge of Tamil Nadu for a year, would have his hands full. There is expectation that the Shiv Sena supremo Uddhav Thackerey would announce in the traditional Vijayadashami address to the cadres that the regional party would withdraw from the coalition with the BJP in Maharashtra, ending nearly three years of an uneasy co-habitation in which BJP Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis does not allow any elbow room for Shiv Sena ministers.

There is a strong feeling in Shiv Sena that Uddhav, who has been attacking Prime Minister Narendra Modi regularly through the party mouthpiece Saamna, should exit the government, as Modi has become unpopular due to the lack of job growth and poor economic record. The party is also unhappy about the state government’s failure to handle the agrarian crisis and continued suicides of farmers in the state.

There is a smaller section which, however, feels Shiv Sena should remain in the coalition government despite poor treatment and make its grand exit closer to the Lok Sabha elections in 2019. This faction, full of first-time ministers and legislators, say they do not have funds to match the super-rich political machine of the BJP.

Vidyasagar Rao, who is a senior RSS and BJP leader from Andhra Pradesh, has not taken any action in Tamil Nadu, despite 19 MLAs loyal to V.K. Sasikala and her nephew T.T.V. Dhinakaran withdrawing their support to Chief Minister Edapadi Palaniswamy more than a month ago. The Dhinakaran-faction, as it is known, had claimed that Palaniswamy had lost the majority in the Tamil Nadu assembly, despite the merger of the O. Paneerselvam-faction. Rao had decided not to direct Palaniswamy to seek a vote of confidence, as he felt their withdrawal of support did not constitute a split in the AIADMK legislature party, which requires at least 42 MLAs.

But meanwhile, Tamil Nadu assembly Speaker Dhanapal, who is close to the Palaniswamy-camp, has disqualified the MLAs for voluntarily deserting the AIADMK, thereby improving the survival chances of Palaniswamy. As the Madras High Court intervened in the matter, Rao has not so far issued a communique.

Interestingly, Rao was one of the few non-medical persons who was allowed to visit Jayalalithaa during her long hospitalisation and had expressed satisfaction at the treatment being given to her.

Subsequently, at the demand of the Paneerselvam-faction, Palaniswamy has ordered an inquiry into the death of Jayalalithaa to find out whether the iron lady of Tamil Nadu politics died due to ill-treatment by her long-time companion Sasikala or for any medical negligence.

However, if Uddhav Thackerey causes tremors in Maharashtra politics and directs his party leaders in the legislature to give a letter withdrawing support to Fadnavis, then Rao would have to take action.

In a house of 288 with one vacancy, the BJP has 122 members, followed by Shiv Sena with 63, Congress with 42, Nationalist Congress Party with 41, Peasants and Workers Party (PWP) as well as Bahujan Vikas Agadi (BVS) with three each, All India Majlis Muthadeen (AIMIM) with two members, CPI (M), Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS) and Samajwadi Party with one member each, and seven independents. While PWP, AIMIM, CPI (M) and SP will not vote for the BJP, it expects support from BVS, MNS and independents, and will be short of just eight or nine votes for the majority mark.

The BJP is working on requesting NCP supremo Sharad Pawar from asking his 41 MLAs from either joining the coalition government or at least abstaining from the confidence vote, which will give a smooth sailing for Fadnavis. The chief minister and his core team, under the directions of party president Amit Shah, are also in touch with individual opposition MLAs to ensure that the BJP government in the second largest state of the country is not toppled in a numbers game. The exit of former chief minister Narayan Rane and his son Nitesh is causing tremors in the Congress, as the latter and two other congress MLAs are loyal to Rane.

If the Madras High Court orders a floor test in the Tamil Nadu assembly, and Uddhav fires his missile, then it would be a hectic week for Rao, who would look to Delhi for advice.

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