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Prathima Nandakumar
Prathima Nandakumar

KARNATAKA

Is Karnataka preparing itself for early polls?

poll-siddaramaiah-file-pti Can the ruling Congress really afford to go for early elections? | PTI (File photo)

Will the Congress government in Karnataka dissolve the House and go for an early elections? Even though Karnataka is to go to polls only in May 2018, speculations are rife that the state will go for an early polls. At least the opposition parties think so. What remains to be seen is if the ruling Congress can really afford to do it.

BJP state president B.S. Yeddyurappa, who is on a statewide tour says that the sudden thrust to development activities and handing out clear tasks and targets to MLAs and frontal organisations by AICC general secretary and Karnataka in-charge K.C. Venugopal indicate that early elections may be called by December.

“We are prepared for an early poll too,” declared Yeddyurappa, who has toured 27 districts already, even as the BJP MLAs and MPs will take out “vistaraks” (booth outreach tours) starting July 1.

Yeddyurappa claimed that the Siddaramaiah government was keen on an early election to dissuade the BJP from cashing in on the 'Modi-Shah' factor that ensured a thumping victory in the Uttar Pradesh elections recently. Early polls can distract BJP national president Amit Shah, the ace strategist and Prime Minister Narendra Modi's focus on Karnataka, as they will be busy with the Gujarat polls. Modi, who is slated to hold 20-30 rallies in the state in the run up to the polls, will be forced to focus on his home state, he reasons.

Sources in the Congress do not rule out early polls either, as the ruling party fears the notoriety of a summer that has been spelling out subsequent droughts, water disputes, drinking water crisis, erratic power cuts and farmer protests can aggravate anti-incumbency against the government. It is the perfect recipe for an electoral disaster, confide leaders.

The Congress, riddled with dissent, infighting and migration of veteran leaders, has no doubt entered the election mode with the AICC team headed by Venugopal evolving a truce formula. The appointment of caste leaders to key posts in the Karnataka Pradesh Congress Committee (KPCC)―G. Parameshwara (dalit) as KPCC chief, Dinesh Gundu Rao (brahmin) and S.R. Patil (lingayat) as working presidents and D.K. Shivakumar (vokkaliga) as the campaign committee chairman―and the AICC re-endorsing Chief Minister Siddaramaiah's leadership are being seen as an effort to build confidence among the cadres and to motivate the party leaders to put up a united fight to retain power in the state.

The opposition party cannot help but suspect that the farm loan waiver of up to Rs 50,000 is also election-oriented and the timing of the announcement hints at an early poll, say both BJP and JD(S) leaders.

Many in the Congress feel that the victory in the two bypolls (Nanjangud and Gundlupet) recently are a shot in the arm for the ruling party and an early elections will benefit the party.

The Congress, which is privy to the yet-to-be disclosed socio-economic (caste) survey, is bound to benefit from it as it gives them a better edge in evolving poll strategies and social engineering. The BJP has been demanding that the report be tabled at the earliest.

The sudden flurry of activities in the Congress camp is being watched by the opposition closely. The recent rally at Koodalasangama in Bagalkot, where S.R. Patil took charge as working president for (North Karnataka) is said to be an effort to lure the politically strong Lingayat community, which is a traditional votebank of the BJP. Moreover, the AICC decision to hold an independent survey of constituencies to assess the win-ability of sitting MLAs, mobilisation of frontal organisations like Youth Congress, NSUI and the Women's wing to reach out to the students and women, has surprised even the Congress cadres. A day after Venugopal allegedly sought a list of college principals sympathetic towards RSS and ABVP, after NSUI complained of lack of access to the colleges, BJP warned the Congress against “importing the Kerala culture of politics”.

Meanwhile, a closer look at the state government's own plan of action in the election year, tells you the ruling Congress is not yet ready for an early poll. The party is mulling over cabinet expansion for the three vacant posts, and the development projects that could appeal to the urban voter are in different stages of approval and implementation, especially related to Bengaluru's development.

As per the provisions of Article 356 of the Indian Constitution, the state assembly can be dissolved only under “justifying circumstances” such as failure to form a government and elect a leader as chief minister, collapse of a coalition or in case of insurgencies and internal disturbances or bifurcation of states.

However, even if the state government initiates dissolution of the House immediately, it would take at least six months to announce the polls, which again is the discretion of the Election Commission of India. For now, an early election before the end of 2017 appears to be a distant possibility. 

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