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Soumik Dey
Soumik Dey

WEATHER

India to receive 98% rainfall during monsoon, forecasts IMD

PTI6_2_2017_000203B Girls walk in rains in Kochi after the arrival of Monsoon | PTI

A figure between 96 and 104 per cent of rainfall indicates a normal monsoon

The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) on Tuesday revised its June-September monsoon shower forecast upwards to 98 per cent of the 50-year long period average this year, from 96 per cent announced in April.

With this, the IMD reinstated its earlier declaration of a 'normal' monsoon, which indicates rainfall between 96 per cent to 104 per cent of the 50-year average.

"Region wise, the season rainfall is likely to be 96 per cent of LPA over North-West India, 100 per cent of LPA over Central India, 99 per cent of LPA over South Peninsula and 96 per cent of LPA over North-East India all with a model error of ± 8 %," an IMD statement said.

The monthly rainfall over the country as a whole is likely to be 96 per cent of its LPA during July and 99 per cent of LPA during August, it said.

"The El Nino conditions are seen dissipating as sea surface temperatures are returning towards normal. This pushes the possibility of any onset of El Nino further to the end of this year," said D.S.Pai, senior scientist and Long Range forecaster at IMD.

According to him, the Indian Ocean Dipole, another factor related to sea temperature that impacts the southwest monsoon, have augured favourably this year.

The onset of monsoon, which was a day earlier than usual over Kerala this year, is also seen to be normal so far. "We expect most Indian cities to experience monsoon showers in the next three weeks," Pai said.

The IMD will monitor the situation and also other global weather prediction models in the meantime and are likely to issue another update of the monsoon in July.

The four-month southwest monsoon season is crucial for crops and for boosting economic demand from rural areas. More than 60 per cent of arable land in India remains heavily dependent on the monsoon showers for a bountiful kharif and rabi crops.

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Topics : #monsoon

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