The BJP may have won recent assembly elections in Gujarat but the victory has come hand in hand with a wake up call that the combination of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and party president Amit Shah is not exactly invincible and the duo who so far appeared to have perfected the art of achieving electoral victories can be checkmated with right strategy and caste arithmetic.
Maharashtra Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis recently expressed his view that there was no anti incumbency factor in Gujarat as BJP's vote share had crossed 49 percent mark, an all time high achieved by the party. Fadnavis felt that the actual number of seats may have gone down but the percentage of votes and more than 8 per cent gap between BJP and Congress clearly meant that it was spectacular performance and victory for the BJP.
Fadnavis said this in Nagpur where winter session of the state legislature is in process. He also said that his government was more stable after BJP's victory in Gujarat—a clear indication that Shiv Sena was unlikely to pull out of government , at least, for the next few months.
A BJP leader, requesting anonymity, admitted that Gujarat victory has also served a jolt to the party.
“The credit goes entirely to prime minister and nobody else. Party cadre was very upset in Gujarat. If you are in power for more than two decades and are not able to take care of party cadre why will they be happy ? The lesson for us in Maharashtra is to make sure that cadre does not feel alienated and loyalists are not sidelined and neglected. Sadly, that is happening in the party,” he said.
Senior BJP minister Babanrao Lonikar told THE WEEK that the BJP has emerged as number one party in Maharashtra because of the work done by this government. “We have provided funds to help farmers in every difficulty, be it drought assistance or crop insurance. There are districts which got funds to the tune of Rs 800 crores, my own district received Rs 190 crores and Rs 220 crores in the last two years. Chief minister has tackled every crisis, political or otherwise, in a very matured and effective manner. The results were seen when people elected us at all levels. In a state like Gujarat, where party has been in power for more than two decades, a certain lethargy can creep in. We have to avoid that totally. All ministers and legislators must ensure that they work tirelessly to deliver results to people. Only then people will continue to vote for us. We must work fast and in a decisive manner,” said Lonikar.
Just a day after Gujarat victory, an editorial in Shiv Sena mouthpiece Saamna had praised Congress and Rahul Gandhi. Party MP and Saamna editor Sanjay Raut went a step further and reportedly said that Congress had lost the election in Gujarat but had managed to defeat the BJP as it had been restricted to 99 seats.
Needless to say then Maharashtra Congress leadership is in a very upbeat mood after Gujarat election results. “If we can give such a tough fight in Gujarat, we can easily defeat the BJP in Maharashtra. We have already defeated them in local polls in Nanded and Nandurbar district. Even in Grampanchayat and municipal council polls we are ahead of the BJP. On the background of all this the result in Gujarat had proved to be very heartening to party cadre at all levels,” said Sachin Sawant, MPCC spokesperson and general secretary.
Senior Congress leader Ratnakar Mahajan told THE WEEK that the mood in the party was upbeat after Gujarat elections. “'We can do it' is the attitude now. We will soon launch another big campaign against the BJP government in Maharashtra. We want to expose this government for its failure to tackle issues on all fronts. All they have done is bogus and misleading propoganda,” said Mahajan.
Congress legislator Anant Gadgil told THE WEEK that party activists are now confident that BJP and Modi can be exposed. “That they could not reach 100 mark is a big psychological victory for us. Also for the first time the PM did not visit any foreign country in the one month of Guajrat campaign; he remained in India and was focussed on Guajrat. This is the impact of Rahul Gandhi's leadership,” Gadgil said in a lighter vein.
In the aftermath of Gujarat, the Nationalist Congress Party has now started sending signals that there is a need for both the Congress parties to come together and form an alliance once again in order to defeat the BJP. NCP legislator Jitendra Avhad and Congress legislators Yahomati Thakur and Sunil Kedar are learnt to have been discussing this within their own parties.
While the NCP is very keen to have an alliance with the Congress well ahead of 2019 elections, it also knows very well that Congress on its own can not fight the BJP and will need like-minded parties as allies. Considering that NCP has just one legislator less than the Congress (Congress 42, NCP 41) in Maharashtra assembly, the party is keen that seats should be shared equally by two parties in the next Lok Sabha and assembly polls in 2019.
A Congress leader, however, said that an alliance proposal is nowhere on the agenda for the Congress right now. “ We may think of seat adjustment at an appropriate time,” he said.
