It is safe to predict that numerous communities who are well placed in the hierarchical caste order in India will soon line up demanding that they be slotted as backward to ensure reservation in jobs and education.
If the Patels, Jats and Marathas—who cannot be labelled backward, by any stretch of imagination—can demand reservations, it is only a matter of time before others raised similar demands.
In Gujarat, the Patels are one of the richest. They dominate the business world in Gujarat, and have made their mark globally.
In Haryana, the politically influential Jats, who constitute nearly 29 per cent of the population, have done considerably well.
In Maharashtra, the Marathas have comparatively done well. Most of the powerful political leaders are Marathas.
It was farcical to see expensive SUVs, driven by Jats, blocking the national highway and other roads in glitzy Gurgaon during a reservation agitation; property worth Rs 20,000 was destroyed. It will take decades for businesses to recover and thrive again.
An analysis of aspirations of young Jats by IndiaSpend, a data journalism website, indicated that the agitation was just one of the indicators of the country’s slow growth, inadequate job-creation and a failing education system that resulted in scores of “unemployable” graduates. That is probably why relatively powerful and empowered communities like the Jats, Gujjars, Marathas and Patels were now demanding reservation.
While they are dominant castes in their states, there are members who are financially backward—marginalised with the increasing neglection faced by the agriculture sector. Naturally, they are seeing government jobs as an alternative livelihood.
Brahmins demand
Brahmins in Kerala are now demanding reservation. The Brahmins and Kshatriyas in Gujarat have demanded that they be granted reservation on the basis of economic backwardness. Gujarat, one of the most prosperous states of India, has around 60 lakh Brahmins.
This was bound to happen as successive governments in the last 70 years have pandered to different groups, sects and communities to dole out reservation for electoral benefits. The Brahmins, who are on the top of the caste pyramid, are feeling left out.
As numerous state elections are round the corner, political parties are whipping up promises that cannot be executed as the constitution does not permit reservation beyond 50 per cent.
Apart from 27 per cent reservation for Other Backward Castes (OBCs), there is 15 per cent reservation for scheduled castes, and 7.5 per cent for scheduled tribes. This works out to 49.5 per cent. But, no political party today is telling any of these prosperous communities that they cannot come under the umbrella of reservation.
Despite the Supreme Court mandate that reservation cannot exceed 50 per cent, the Rajasthan government thought it fit to grant reservation to Gujjars and four other communities taking it to an all-time high of 68 per cent.
Sooner or later, it is bound to be struck down by the judiciary. Political parties will then say that it was a decision by the court not to grant more reservation.
In 2014, a Supreme Court bench of Justice Ranjan Gogoi and Justice Rohinton Fali Nariman ruled that inclusion of the politically organised classes in the backward list, on the basis of the fact that other groups who were better off than them were included as backward castes, does not hold.
Election ploys
Prime Minister Narendra Modi and BJP President Amit Shah sent out clear signals to its 18 chief ministers and party workers to focus on government schemes that have the ability to empower the poor and marginalised.
It is being done with good reason. In another year, there will be elections in Gujarat, Himachal Pradesh, Karnataka, Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, Nagaland, Tripura and Meghalaya.
In the next few months, demands for reservation by various communities will rise as political parties will try to pander to them.
The BJP is out to showcase schemes like Ujjwala that offers cooking gas cylinders to weaker sections, distribution of LED lights, construction of toilets, electricity to all houses, loans to SCs, STs, women and youth and schemes under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme.
The BJP has chosen to highlight these specific achievements as it directly impacts the marginalised sections that are mostly from backward castes and tribes. Political analysts point out that the strategy of reaching out to scheduled castes and tribes and other backward castes could greatly help garner votes as it did during the last Gujarat and Uttar Pradesh elections.
Look at how politics plays out before elections. Kurmis who form about 14 per cent of the population in Jharkhand are demanding that they be declared as scheduled tribes.
Their leader, former MP, Shailendra Mahato, who is heading the agitation, says that Kurmis were originally tribals and they should not be robbed of their identity. Other tribals in the state are opposing the Kurmi demand.
BJP leaders openly say that if the Kurmis are not accorded ST status, the coming state elections are going to be tricky for the party.
The Jats of Haryana who are quite well to do, and entrenched deeply in political and social circles, are now demanding that they be declared as OBCs so that they can corner government jobs and seats in educational institutions.
The same is the case in both Gujarat and Rajasthan.
The Jats cannot be ignored as they form 29 per cent of the state’s population. In fact, in 2013, the Jats in Haryana were granted OBC status but it was stayed by the Punjab and Haryana High Court as it exceeded the ceiling of 50 per cent reservation.
Buying peace
Haryana Chief Minister Manohar Lal Khattar panicked as the situation went out of control and the army had to be called in. He sought peace by agreeing to five demands of the agitators.
The agitating Jats announced they were “temporarily” suspending the stir.
Khattar said that all cases against the agitators registered since 2010 would be reviewed, the kin of those killed or handicapped during the agitation in 2016 would be given permanent government jobs and the injured would be awarded compensation. He said that members and chairpersons of the National Commission for Backward Classes would be appointed to initiate the process to include Jats in the Centre’s list of Other Backward Classes. After the Punjab and Haryana High Court decides on a matter related to Jat reservation, the process to include the Jats in the 9th Schedule of Constitution would be started, he said.
He should very well know that the promises cannot hold as the law is clear on the fact that reservation in India cannot go beyond 50 per cent. Just before the elections, the Jats will raise their demand again.
Brewing trouble
As soon as Khattar took over, political observers in Chandigarh had predicted how trouble would brew soon as it was a well known fact that the last thing the Jats wanted was a Punjabi chief minister. Even the Jat leaders within the BJP were uneasy.
The Ahirs, Gujjars and Lodhas in Haryana who benefit from 27 per cent reservation in government jobs and educational institutions do not want the Jat demand addressed as it will directly affect them as their share will become smaller.
Patel factor
With Gujarat assembly elections scheduled in December 2017, the Congress is trying to win over the angry Patels who have been agitating to be included in the reserved category. The Patels are among the most prosperous communities in India.
But now, they want political power. For almost 40 years now, identity politics by the Congress in the state had isolated the Patels as the former had roped in the Kshatriyas, dalits, adivasis and Muslims to create a winnable vote bank. It had worked. It was called the KHAM theory that erstwhile chief ministers like Madhavsinh Solanki employed. Though they were rich and influential in society, the Patels were left out in the cold.
It is this disenchantment that Hardik Patel, a 22-year-old student, exploited to bond the community. They are now threatening to vote the BJP out of Gujarat. The Congress is planning to field around 50 Patels in the coming polls. Congress leader Rahul Gandhi recently told a public gathering in Gujarat that the Patels got a raw deal.
Reservation will become a major poll issue.
The BJP is trying to counter it by bringing in upper castes, OBCs, STs, and SCs. The OBCs will call the shots as they constitute 40 per cent of the population. Patels form just 14 per cent. Tribals constitute about 16 per cent, and scheduled castes are about 7.5 per cent and Muslims are about 11 per cent.
Marathas show their clout
The mammoth protests of Marathas in Maharashtra demanding reservation forced Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis to succumb to their main demands. Fadnavis announced that the government would now extend the same educational concessions to the Marathas that were till now given to the OBCs. Fadnavis also set up a backward class commission to examine grounds on which reservations can be granted to the Marathas who are the most influential community in Maharashtra, accounting for 32 per cent of the state’s population. It is said that most of the political and business acumen rests with about 250 Maratha families, while the others are struggling to establish an identity as they fight one agrarian crisis after another.
UPDATE: The Marathas are threatening to start their protests again as the Fadnavis government gears up to fight elections towards the end of 2019. The Maratha Kranti Morcha has just shot of a missive threatening to restart their agitation in November if a government resolution is not passed approving their demands. Members of the Morcha met in Pune to chalk out the future course of action. Shantaram Kunjir, one of the organisers echoed a common feeling when he pointed out that though 45 days had passed since their meeting with Fadnavis, not a single government resolution on any of their demands had been issued. He said they would be back to the streets in another month. Revenue Minister Chandrakant Patil has said that the government was working on the demands and decisions that required economic factors took time.
Reservation is a sticky affair. And, largely a political one as all parties exploited it for electoral ends. Many vainly hope that one day, all reservation will be abolished and only the economically disadvantaged will be eligible to benefit from it. But with poverty increasing, this also will be a hot potato to hold.
DISCLAIMER: Views expressed are personal
