The countdown to Rajya Sabha election for three seats from Gujarat has begun with 44 opposition Congress MLAs returning to their state early morning today from Bengaluru.
The opposition MLAs have been put up at Nijanand Resort in Anand, about 100 kms away from Gandhinagar where the voting will take place. They will be directly taken to Gandhinagar tomorrow morning to vote.
The Congress MLAs have also been not allowed to go to their respective constituencies and are celebrating Rakshabandhan with their family members at the resort. Security arrangements have been beefed up at the resort after Congress leader Shailesh Parmar wrote to the top police officials that they felt threatened.
On July 29, the Gujarat Congress had moved 44 of its state legislators to Eagleton Resort near Bengaluru, following claims from some of them that the BJP was using “money and muscle power” ahead of the RS elections due on August 8. The BJP has denied these allegations.
In the 182-member assembly, the BJP has enough numbers for their two candidates to win the poll easily. The Congress also has enough numbers for one candidate to win.
The drama unfolded on July 21 when senior leader Shankersinh Vaghela, who had been unhappy with the Congress for quite some time, quit the party on his birthday. This was soon followed by six Congress MLAs' resignation from the party. To make matters worse for the Congress, the BJP declared Balwantsinh Rajput, one among the three who defected, as its RS nominee. The other nominees include BJP national president Amit Shah and Union Minister Smriti Irani.
Tenures of Irani and Dilip Pandya (both from the BJP) and the Congress' Ahmed Patel will end in August.
As the six MLAs who resigned are now not eligible to vote, the current strength of the assembly is 176. The BJP has 121 MLAs, the Congress 51 and the NCP has two, while the JD(U) and Rashtriya Parivartan Party has one each.
With six Congress MLAs having quit and some more likely to follow them, the fight is likely to be a photo finish in the state. In any case, a defeat for Patel, political adviser to Congress president Sonia Gandhi, will be an embarrassment for the party. It will also affect the morale of the party rank and file ahead of the crucial assembly elections, which is due the year-end.
The option of NOTA has also added to the problem. Congress, in its whip has already asked its MLAs not to use NOTA. During their stay in Bengaluru, the Congress MLAs were given training on various issues related to public life. Most importantly, they were also explained the numbers, according to sources.
While the Congress is trying its best to keep its flock together and is claiming that the party has enough numbers, the BJP's state spokesperson Bharat Pandya exuded confidence that all their three candidates would win.
The BJP's top leadership in Gujarat is meeting later in the afternoon after which party chief Shah would address the MLAs. In the meeting, Shah is also expected to make them understand the finer details of the elections.
The election results will be out by late afternoon on August 8.
A win for the BJP will also mean that its claim of internal fighting within the state Congress would stand vindicated.
Despite having 51 MLAs, the Congress is counting on just 44 votes, in light of the recently concluded Presidential election, during which 11 Congress MLAs had cross voted in favour of BJP nominee. However, the state Congress president Bharatsinh Solanki is confident of Patel's victory.
Interestingly, Vaghela, despite having quit from the party, too has given his conditional support to Patel.
Meanwhile, the Congress has received flak from the masses, especially from the flood-ravaged north Gujarat area, over the whole episode of MLA ferrying. The BJP has been using the Bengaluru episode to its advantage by highlighting that the Congress MLAs enjoyed their stay in Bengaluru at a time when they were supposed to be in their constituencies.
The Congress in its defense has said the party MLAs were the first ones to reach their constituencies during the calamity.
