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Rabi Banerjee
Rabi Banerjee

WEEKEND SPECIAL

BJP pours in all efforts to breach the Northeast Frontier

pm-modi-in-shillong-pti [File] Prime Minister Narendra Modi addressing a rally in Shillong | PTI

The upcoming Northeast elections will set the tune of national politics, sensing that the BJP has decided to plunge into it with all strength. All the three states have 60 assembly seats each.

Band of leaders would campaign extensively in the three states, which are also among the marginalised states in India’s Northeast. It is part of the BJP’s strategy to bring entire Northeastern part of India into its kitty. After Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Manipur, if BJP could get to hold on three states in 2018, it would be able to control 22 out of 25 parliamentary seats in Northeastern India.

Interestingly, the BJP is poised to reap benefits in each of the three states. In Nagaland, it is part of the alliance – Democratic Alliance of Nagaland (DAN) – that runs the government. In Nagaland BJP has four MLAs, but more than that it’s BJP which strung together the two factions of Naga People’s Front (NPF), one led by the present Chief Minister, T.R. Zeiland and the other by former chief minister, Suhrozeili Leizitsu, prominent Naga leader in Nagaland and the chief of DAN. In Meghalaya, BJP will have to test its popularity by going alone as none of the regional parties it had tried were ready to give more than expected seats to contest.

Nagaland: BJP's unbreachable fortress

The BJP-led Democratic Alliance of Nagaland has been in power in Nagaland since 2003. Last year T.R. Zeilang, chief minister of Nagaland, had to quit the office after a public outrage over his decision to allow women’s reservation in the state. Leizitsu took charge replacing him. But Leizetsu was held as an “authoritarian” by the Zeilang faction, for sidelining Zeilang’s followers in the government, and he was removed from power few months back. The tug of war almost led to split in the party which was kept in abeyance just because of timely intervention of BJP’s central leadership.

BJP’s Nagaland president, V. Lhoungu said, “It is good that before the assembly elections they decided to sort out their differences. In fact, we stand to get benefit because of NPF’s internal disturbances.”

The alliance with NPF in Nagaland for the BJP is a political necessity, more than ideological. NPF is known to be close to NSCN(IM), the surrendered Naga militant group in Nagaland, and the ongoing peace treaty between NSCN(IM) and central government is part of the long political stability in the once turbulent state in India.

But BJP is not losing any chance to fish in the troubled waters. It presently has four MLAs in Nagaland. But this time it would try to contest in as many as 40 seats.

“After being part of the alliance in Nagaland we grew as a party. Now we are in a position to win more seats. Also we have been able to convince people that it is the BJP government at the Centre which is contributing to bringing peace in Nagaland by holding a fruitful dialogue with NSCN(IM). Also BJP is bringing development to Northeastern states,” Lhoungu told THE WEEK.

So will there be any alliance with NPF?

The BJP state president said, “Yes there will be a seat sharing. But in some seats there might be no agreement as both sides would demand they would win. So we would love to contest and fight the seats on our own. I think this time we will double our tally and will win the Lok Sabha elections in 2019.”

“We will be back in power. And after election we will select the chief minister,” said Leizitsu.

The feud in NPF has ignited hope for the Congress this time, which has vowed to engage dreaded Naga outfit NSCN(K) to the talk table.

Also Congress sees no hope for BJP in Nagaland, a state which has 8 lakhs Christian voters out of 11 lakhs total voters.

“Why should Christians vote for BJP? The central government restricted funds for churches, NGOs and Theological Society of Youths of Nagaland. Due to BJP government’s crackdown on foreign funds, even missionary hospitals are facing fund crunch. Many people could not get their treatment in these clinics which they used to get free of cost. People would not forgive BJP,” K. Therie, Congress president of Nagaland, told THE WEEK.

“I am sure people would give a befitting reply to the BJP government. Also it has incurred anti-incumbancy because of the alliance with NPF. They are an opportunistic front,” added Therie.

However, if BJP gets non-Christian votes in massive scale and the Christian votes are shared by NPF and Congress, BJP is bound to get a good number of seats in Nagaland.

Therie, seems to be confident about Congress' chance and said that, “I am sure Congress will come back to power this time. Congress has been rejuvenated after Gujarat election. ”

Such religious imbroglio exists in another Christian dominated state in the Northeast, Meghalaya, which has around 81 per cent of Christian population.

Meghalaya: Sangma's home turf

Contrary to Nagaland, in Meghalaya BJP has not found any alliance despite many attempts. Last year in the Tura byelection, after demise of former Lok Sabha speaker, P.A. Sangma, BJP supported Sangma’s son and president of Nationalist People’s Party (NPP), Conard Sangma. Conard won the seat and became an MP who is now part of the NDA.

But in the assembly election, Conard refused to get into any alliance with BJP. He cited the Manipur strategy as a reason, where BJP and NPP had fought separately and won good number of seats and later formed government.

“I think none of us know our potential. Manipur has showed us a new way of fighting election. Whoever has got bigger strength and wining potential, people have voted them and made them winner. So this time NPP will fight the election without any alliance,” Sangma told THE WEEK.

Asked about the post poll situation, he said with a smile, “The post poll action will be decided depending on the situation after election.”

Though junior Sangma did not disclose why he chose not to go for an alliance with BJP, but political sources revealed that BJP’s massive anti-Christian policy along with beef ban this year has made the local political parties, opposed to Congress, jittery.

Another main political party, United Democratic Party (UDP), which had earlier formed government with NPP, was also in talk with BJP initially. But UDP has also rejected the proposal of the BJP and would fight the election alone.

Shibyun Lyngdoh, BJP president in Meghalaya, admitted that his party was trying to stitch up an alliance with both NPP and UDP.

“But as of now there has been no break through. It seems we will fight alone in the election,” Lyngdoh told THE WEEK.

Asked about whether it’s realistic to see BJP as a wining force in Meghalaya, defeating a mammoth Congress party, the leader said, “Even in Manipur people used to say the same thing. But we won the election.”

What Lyngdoh did not say is that, Manipur is largely dominated by Hindus and thhe party was able to cash in the votes with Naga party – thanks to Naga peace talks and Sangma’s NPP being part of NDA.

But Meghalaya is not Manipur where the Congress is a big force to reckon with. Also Hindu population is as low as 11 per cent in the state, which would not allow the saffron party to play the Hindu card.

“I am not ruling out the post poll alliance. I am sure that all anti-Congress parties would come and join us, to form the government if we are short of few seats,” said Lyndoh.

Realising the complex situation in the state, Amit Shah has made Alphons Kannanthanam, Union minister who hails from Kerala, as the man in charge of assembly elections in Meghalaya. Once the election is over Alphons would be busy holding major talks with the parties to try to form the first BJP government in the state.

Tripura: The Red fortress

What is not possible in Nagaland and Meghalaya is possible in Tripura, a Bengali dominated state in the Northeast. The fight in Tripura will be the toughest among the three. BJP and RSS leaders are leaving no stone unturned to win the state from the communists, which has been ruling the state for the last 20 years.

BJP's face of the election campaign is RSS pracharak turned BJP organisation man, Sunil Deodhar. Deodhar has been camping in Tripura for last one year and made the state as his home for sometime. Like in Manipur and Meghalaya, BJP did not have any organisational strength in Tripura. Only scores of Congress rebels turned-Trinamool Congress leaders, who joined the party recently became the leadership of the party. Not only Deodhar, RSS chief Mohan Bhagwat is also holding several meetings in Tripura to remove Manik Sarkar from power.

Needless to say because of its proximity with Bangladesh, Bhagwat’s religious rally and Deodhar’s campaign rallies are drawing huge crowd making the communists unnerved.

“If we could win Tripura, then Bengal will be very easy to crack,” said Deodhar.

Biplab Das, state BJP president and the chief ministerial candidate, told THE WEEK, “We will definitely win this time. If you feel that BJP has never won a seat in Tripura, you are mistaken. BJP had not won a single seat before coming to power in Manipur last year. We are sure we are coming to power this time (in Tripura).”

Unlike other two states in the Northeast, BJP has entered into an alliance with Indigenous National Party of Tripura (INPT) and Indigenous People’s Front Tripura (IPFT). While IPFT has recently taken out a violent movement, in which one journalist was killed, for a separate state for the tribal people, INPT has been demanding Inner Line Permit (ILP) for people visiting the state. ILP is applicable in some of the Northeastern states like Arunachal Pradesh, Mizoram and Nagaland.

What is surprising is that INPT leader B.K. Hrangkhawal said, “We had talks with BJP in which they have agreed to grand us ILP which is known as mini visa.”

BJP leadership has refused to talk about the deal it made with IPFT and INPT. But CPM said the 2018 election would be the most dangerous election for the people of Tripura.

“We are not at all worried about our performance. We will win comfortably. But the most alarming thing is BJP is trying to divide the state and its people. For many decades tribals and Bengalis in Tripura live in the same state in peace. RSS and BJP is all here to break that,” said Gautam Das, CPM state secretariat member.

Asked whether CPM thinks Congress as a force to reckon with in Tripura, Das replied, “We don’t consider BJP as a force. Our government is pro poor and bound to come back to power.”

Even though the communists won last elections with a huge majority of 51 out of the 60 seats, this time they seem to be nervous despite the clean image of chief minister Manik Sarkar. A teacher recruitment scam, unemployment and lack of development threatens his government for the first time in last two decades.

“The mask of clean image has come off. Manik Sarkar has been exposed after so many years of dictatorship in Tripura,” said Deb.

Narendra Modi has understood the religious and social structure of the Northeast states. He would not let people decide on caste, religion or social base. Modi has been a Santa to Northeastern states so far.

On December 16, Modi did not visit the poll bound states but declared from Mizoram that Centre would spend Rs 2000 crore to uplift infrastructure in Northeastern states. He has done his bit by spending on railway projects and other power projects in the Northeast. He would be spending more.

It is yet to be seen whether his attempt will pay rich dividend for his party or not.

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