The untimely death of Bijepur MLA Subal Sahu on August 22 is going to force a byelection in the constituency which is under Bargarh district of western Odisha. This is likely to be the test match between the three major political parties of the state before the next general election in early 2019. Bijepur assembly byelection is going to a big challenge for the Biju Janta Dal, the Bharatiya Janta Party and the Congress. This will be the first assembly byelection after 2014, when both Lok Sabha and assembly polls were held simultaneously in Odisha. In last February’s Zilla Parishad election, BJP came a strong second by pushing Congress to third position and reducing BJD’s seats.
The significance of Bijepur is that it is situated in western Odisha and belonged to Congress. Though Congress has been on a decline in Odisha, the party still remains the main opposition in state assembly.
Traditionally, Congress has a base vote of 15 per cent in the state. In Bijepur, with Subal Sahu as its candidate, Congress had won the seat for three terms, despite the BJD swing. Even in 2014, Sahu had defeated BJD strongman from western Odisha, Prasanna Acharya, who was the finance minister of the state at that time. BJP, too, got a sizeable vote. But if Congress retains Bijepur this time, it will be a morale booster. If it fails to reach a second position at least, like during the Zilla Parishad polls, the morale of the party will collapse.
There is infighting in Congress at the state level. Recently, a three member team, sent by the high command, had visited the state to take opinion of leaders on choosing a new PCC Chief. There seems to exist a difference of opinion between the Delhi bosses, headed by the AICC vice president Rahul Gandhi, and majority of the state leaders, including the party MLAs on this topic. But before the byelection is announced, Congress has to set its house in order.
In last February’s rural poll, BJP did much better in western Odisha, including Bargarh district. The party will take Bijepur byelection as its next challenge. For Chief Minister Naveen Patnaik, winning Bijepur will be a political compulsion. In 2014, BJD had lost the seat by a thin margin of 458 votes. But after the loss in rural poll, BJD has inducted a second minister from the district. This is a gift for the small district—Snehangini Chhuria (Textiles) and Susanta Singh (labour department).
Though BJP did well in the rural polls this year, its defeat later in the byelections in local bodies in western Odisha saw a break in its rise. It was pushed to third position in the Zilla Parishad byelection in Nawapara district. That byelection was significant as BJP was pushed to third position and the Congress came second though the party's state president MLA Basanta Panda belongs to Nawapara. Though the Narendra Modi wave didn’t work in Odisha in 2014, BJP began working to strengthen its base in the state. After 2014, the only byelection to Kandhamal Lok Sabha seat had seen BJP getting second position against BJD that had retained the seat. But, Congress which had second position in 2014 was pushed to third.
