"This is an existential moment in Labour’s history. It may not survive. And it may never win again," warned Peter Hyman, former chief speechwriter and strategist for Tony Blair, in a devastating critique about the disintegration of Britain’s New Labour party in The Guardian in 2015.
The write-up lamented the successive failures of Gordon Brown and Ed Miliband that had left Labour in a parlous state of affairs. However, just a couple of years later, it might be far from an exaggeration to say that the party was resurrected from the throes of oblivion to the current Labour Party, thanks to Jeremy Corbyn.
One cannot but blame any curious political observer if she/he is tempted to draw parallels between the New Labour Party of 2015 and the Indian National Congress. But in stark contrast to Labour Party, the Congress is yet to see a Jeremy Corbyn rise in the party. When Congress leader Jairam Ramesh recently said the party faces not just an electoral crisis but also an existential crisis, it struck a chord as it came at a time when the party's master strategist and Sonia Gandhi’s political secretary Ahmed Patel struggled in Gujarat, his home state, to retain his Rajya Sabha seat.
While Patel did manage to win, the election exposed serious problems within the Congress in Gujarat, which goes to assembly polls later this year. The party is in tatters with several of its MLAs having switched sides. Moreover, it does not have a face to present in the polls and seems to be searching in darkness when it comes to presenting a vision before the people.
In neighbouring Maharashtra, too, the Congress is struggling to keep its flock together. “We have information that three of our MLAs are likely to switch over when Amit Shah will come visiting,” said a Congress leader from the state. If that happens, the party would lose its leader of opposition post in the state assembly.
“(Prime Minister) Narendra Modi and Amit Shah have introduced a new kind of politics. If they do not have the numbers to form government, they do it by poaching MLAs,” said Gujarat Congress leader Arjun Modhwadia, citing as examples the developments in Uttarakhand, Goa, Manipur and Arunachal Pradesh.
That said, it is no secret that the Congress’ performance has been a far cry from what it had been in the electoral history of the party (and India) as it continues to lose battles against the BJP. It has failed to win face-to-face contests with the BJP in Maharashtra, Haryana, Uttarakhand, Jharkhand and Assam. Adding salt to the wound, the BJP stole victories from it in Goa and Manipur, where the Congress had emerged as the largest party.
If being reduced to mere 44 seats in the Lok Sabha was not enough, the Congress rules only five states currently, with Karnataka and Punjab being the only two prominent states. Elections are coming up in Gujarat and Himachal Pradesh later this year, and Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh next year. The party has to get its act together in Gujarat, whereas corruption charges against the incumbent Virbhadra Singh in Himachal has queered the pitch for it.
The Congress is desperate to come back to power in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, having lost both to the BJP 15 years ago. However, there is a delay in projecting a face in Madhya Pradesh, where it has a number of prominent leaders—from Kamal Nath to Digvijaya Singh to Jyotiraditya Scindia to name a few. In Chhattisgarh, Congress is tackling in-party differences and the possible damage ex-party leader Ajit Jogi could inflict.
Meanwhile, the BJP has trumped it in the Rajya Sabha to become the largest party in the house of elders. Keeping the opposition together is also proving to be tough, with the exit of Nitish Kumar being seen as a major loss.
AICC General Secretary B.K. Hariprasad, however, expressed optimism about the party bouncing back. “We are the only party with a pan-India presence and only we can provide a credible alternative to the BJP. Very soon, the people will see through the false propaganda of Modi and his party,” he said.
Soon after the Lok Sabha elections in 2014, Congress President Sonia Gandhi had told leaders at a meeting that she wanted to take the backseat and that Rahul should take charge of the party. At a CWC meeting earlier this year, when the issue of Rahul's elevation was discussed, a senior leader said it was high time the matter was decided so that the focus could turn to reviving the party.
However, changes have happened at snail’s pace. A reason cited for it is the differences between the seniors and Rahul. For example, in Madhya Pradesh, the old guard is in favour of Kamalnath being made the PCC chief, while Rahul favours Scindia. At the same time, AICC general secretary in charge of the state Mohan Prakash continues to support Arun Yadav who holds the post at present. Rahul was finding it difficult to appoint a new PCC chief in Gujarat, with his choice apparently getting blocked by Ahmed Patel. It was during his sabbatical, which was also seen as a protest leave, that his nominee, Bharatsinh Solanki, was appointed to the post.
The Congress VP has been criticised for showing a lack of consistency in his involvement with the party. There have been occasions when his intervention as a prominent opposition leader was needed, and he was missing. As the Congress struggled to cobble together numbers for Patel in the Rajya Sabha elections in Gujarat, Rahul was again conspicuous by his absence. It was said that he was unwell, and hence could not even attend a meeting of the CWC. However, it is worth noting that while all prominent Congress leaders had something to say about the bitterly fought election, there was not even a tweet from Rahul on the issue.
A Rahul aide said changes can be expected after the Congress VP takes over as the party chief. “There will certainly be an organisational revamp, a style revamp. There will be a new line of leadership in states.”
Clearly, the grand old party desperately needs a brand new idea—the sooner the better!
