The poorest chief minister of the country is in the midst of fighting the hardest electoral battles of his life. Manik Sarkar, 69, the chief minister of Tripura, is not bothered by the rapid growth of the BJP in the state, and also the likelihood of getting defeated by the BJP in a state that he has been ruling for 20 years. Said Sarkar to THE WEEK, “I am very confident that the left front government will form the government once again in Tripura. People have voted for our government in large numbers. We will come back to power, I am sure.” Tripura is a state where the CPI(M) has ruled for 25 years and is one of its last bastions. Sarkar, if he wins another term, will beat Jyoti Basu’s record as the longest serving communist chief minister in the country. Basu, a legendary communist, was the chief minister of West Bengal for 23 years.
When asked if he was surprised in the manner the BJP fought and campaigned in Tripura, Sarkar said, “Let us wait for a few more days. The picture will be clear. I am hopeful of a big victory. Whatever I have to say, I will say after the results are out.”
Close to 78 per cent of Tripura’s 25.73 lakh voters voted for the single-phase assembly polls in the state on February 18. The results will be out on March 3.
The CPI(M)-led front has remained an undefeatable force in Tripura. The BJP, which was never a formidable force in the state, fought the elections hard and now it hopes to force out of position the Sarkar government. The saffron party, since the last few years, has been rapidly expanding its footmark in Tripura, where it has aligned with the Indigenous People’s Front of Tripura (IPFT). The BJP contested 51 seats and the IPFT in nine seats.
The CPI(M) has 49 seats in the present assembly and ally, the CPI, has one seat. The Congress has 10 seats.
Of the 25 lakh voters in the state this time, 13 lakh were men and 12 lakh were women. Close to 48,000 were first-time voters in the state.
The BJP’s charge in Tripura was led by no less than Prime Minister Narendra Modi. It was for the first time in the country that the saffron flags ploughed into the red ones in a direct confrontation between the left and the right. The Congress and the Trinamool Congress have been more or less marginalised, with many of their leaders joining the BJP. A defeat in Tripura will have a national impact in the country. Kerala and Tripura are the only states ruled by the left parties in the country.
The results in Tripura is bound to have immediate ramifications for the CPI(M) in particular. General Secretary Sitaram Yechury, who was cornered in the party’s central committee last month after calling for an electoral alliance with the Congress, will be keenly looking at the results. If Sarkar loses, it will be a big boost to Yechury’s stance. Interestingly, most party members from Tripura were keen for an alliance with the Congress, both at the state and the Centre, as envisaged by Yechury. It was Prakash Karat who shot down Yechury’s proposal. Karat’s line was accepted by the central committee by a margin of 55 to 31.
If Sarkar wins the elections in Tripura, Karat will further strengthen his position in the party and there will be an end to the discussion relating to the national alliance with the Congress to counter the BJP.
Said T.K. Rangarajan, CPI(M) MP, to THE WEEK, “I am a Central committee member myself. I can assure you there are no issues between Sitaram and Prakash. I don’t understand why the media is speculating like this. Whatever the results in Tripura, the party will stand united.” He said the CPI(M) is not worried about the election results in Tripura. “The results have no implications as you suggest. It is natural in communist parties to have differences of opinion. Heathy debates keep happening in our party. Unlike other parties, we don’t fight in the open. Our concerns are always for the people,” said Rangarajan.
The BJP’s national secretary H. Raja said the Left Front will be defeated by the BJP-led alliance in Tripura. Said Raja to THE WEEK, “The CPI(M) has lost West Bengal permanently. After it loses Tripura, Kerala will be the last bastion of the communists in India.”
Raja said allies of the CPI(M) in Kerala will lose confidence in the party after it loses Tripura and it will lead to a political realignment in Kerala. “A defeat in Tripura would have a direct impact in Kerala. The CPI(M) in Kerala is surviving only because of its allies. The difference in the CPI(M) and the BJP’s vote share in Kerala is less than 8 per cent,” he said.