Monsoon in Kerala is "slightly delayed" and likely to set in by June 6 and "normal to excess rainfall" is expected over most parts of the country from July till September, said private weather forecaster Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS).
"The onset of monsoon in Kerala is expected to be slightly delayed and is likely to take place around June 6 to June 7 as a weak current," said Kanti Prasad, senior consultant, climate sciences, WRMS Pvt Ltd.
"Though slightly delayed, its advancement will be good," Prasad said.
The company processes the NOAA climate CFSV2 (coupled forecast system version 2) model and adds statistical and synoptic interpretations to provide long range weather forecasts to its clients. NOAA is the US's National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
The analysis says rainfall during the month of June may "remain subdued" over many parts of India except in the northeastern states.
"Monsoon rains are expected to commence over north eastern states around June 10 and advance further westward across West Bengal, Bihar, East UP and Himalayan belt between June 16 and June 20. Our analysis of the model shows that monsoon 2016 may end up on the positive side of the normal with well distributed rainfall over the country," said Prasad.
"The monthly precipitation forecasts based on the model products dated May 26 indicate positive anomalies (normal to excess rainfall) over most parts of the country during July, August and September."
But a few pockets of south peninsula such as Andhra Pradesh, Telangana, Karnataka and Tamil Nadu may receive "deficient rainfall" during the months of July and September, he said.